Wednesday, 4 May 2022

Dear Dame,

A good friend who has just retired from the US intelligence industry sent me this extraordinary appraisal of a potential mess Putin has got himself into.


An avid follower 

Chaining the little man


President Xi is a perceptive man with a plan. 

A year or two back the PLA and the Russian Army carried out a joint exercise. Senior PLA officers reported to Xi Russian military capability was seriously degraded in many areas. 

Xi also has very good intel so would have known that taking Ukraine would be no ‘walk in the park’.

When Putin told Xi that the Special Operation in Ukraine would take just a couple of weeks Xi must have thought his friend quite mad but, being the inscrutable Xi, kept his own counsel.

The cost to the Russian economy through sanctions and the war is reducing this pariah state to being chained to China for decades ahead. Putin thought that he would be an equal partner with China in reshaping the rules-based world order. That was never what Xi had in mind.

Xi, by encouraging Putin in his adventure, has turned Russia into a client state dependent on China for its economic survival. This servitude means China can now plunder Russia’s natural resources at bargain basement prices. With no other buyers around Russia becomes just another weak country China can prey upon.

Putin will rue the day he fell in love with China. There will be a big price to pay….oh, and he can forget about using nuclear weapons: the Chinese will never allow him to screw up its long terms plans to dominate the world.”

From the Hornet’s Nest


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